The Battle of Brentwood - Part II

While Kamala Harris Edges Closer to Running for California Governor, the ICE Raids may Have Created Rick Caruso's big Gubernatorial Opportunity

Perhaps high on their own supply, the Republican Party is fast careening off a political cliff in California as they cheerlead Trump’s abhorrent and economically destructive ICE raids.¹

The ICE raids could change the calculus of next year’s Governor’s race where Governor Gavin Newsom is term-limited and a crowded field has lined up to replace him.²

Trump’s actions have altered elections abroad.³ This year, Canadians re-elected Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal Party after his party had trailed the opposition Conservative Party by 25% only a few months earlier.⁴ Five days later, Australians re-elected Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Labor Party in a historic landslide defying expectations.⁵

In both elections, pundits credited opposition to Donald Trump as motivating the electorate. However, beyond absolute disgust for Trump, voters perceived Prime Minister Carney and Prime Minister Albanese as the best leaders to protect them from Trump.⁶

Could such a dynamic impact the 2026 California Governor’s race?

In the Battle of Brentwood, this Substack discussed the possibility of a general election for Governor of California between former Vice President Kamala Harris and billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso, who ran for Los Angeles Mayor in 2022.

Neither Harris nor Caruso has announced a run for Governor but The Hill is reporting that Kamala Harris is leaning towards running for Governor. Caruso has not announced any plans but since the massive ICE raids began, he reduced his constant criticism of Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and denounced the ICE raids and Trump’s federalizing of the California National Guard.

Political heavyweights, Harris and Caruso live only a few blocks from one another in Brentwood⁷ and have used the same political consultants.⁸

If he runs for Governor, Caruso would have several advantages that he did not have running for Los Angeles Mayor.

• Caruso won’t face any progressive opponent who could peel off conservative and moderate voters.

• Provided he remains a registered Democrat, Caruso will run on the ballot as a Democrat.⁹

• If Caruso ran statewide in a general election against another Democrat but won over 45% of the vote in the City of Los Angeles, he would likely win statewide in a landslide.

Caruso’s fury towards the ICE raids likely reflects a genuine values decision of many Californians who, like Caruso, are now ex-Republicans because of their disagreement with the party on a number of hot button issues.¹⁰

Among other issues, the Republican Party’s stance on immigration has turned off many of its most loyal voters. The current ICE raids have only reinforced that.

California, particularly Los Angeles, is currently under sustained assault from Trump who is using his ICE goons to (1) terrorize the population, (2) split families apart, (3) remove primary caretakers for disabled citizens, (4) leave children parentless, (5) embolden criminals, (6) devastate our economy, (7) jeopardize the nation’s food supply, and (8) threaten our national security.

Travelling in unmarked vehicles, without badges, and donned in masks (and sometimes keffiyehs), ICE goons are grabbing people off the street and throwing them into vans.¹¹

They are kidnapping gardeners, housekeepers, factory workers, valet parkers, street merchants, restaurant employees, nannies, car wash employees, and day laborers. Often, they will storm businesses without proper warrants, grab whoever they can, and engage in excessive uses of force.

Caught on tape since the sustained assault began, ICE goons, among other things, have:

• Brandished guns at those protesting them or exercising their constitutional right to record.

• Stolen personal property from U.S. citizens.

• Committed felony hit and runs.

• Made false arrests.

• Detained United States citizens.

Perhaps the most infamous incident is the arrest of Narciso Barranco, the father of three United States Marines. Mr. Barranco, who has lived in this country for over three decades and runs a successful landscaping business, was tackled and beaten to a pulp by several ICE goons even though he wasn’t resisting arrest.

Mr. Barranco’s son, Alejandro, suggested that had he done this to a civilian in Afghanistan, he would have been court-martialed.¹² He also noted that the ICE goons who beat his father had no training on how to handle firearms, noting that the goon chasing his father aimed his gun sideways and had his finger on the trigger.

Beyond committing crimes and terrorizing the population, ICE goons are also engaging in non-stop harassment of United States citizens and permanent lawful residents, stopping many at random demanding proof of citizenship for seemingly no other reason than their brown skin color.

U.S. citizens with brown skin and foreign accents are now travelling with passports.¹³ They have become strangers in their own land.

There has also been a horrendous economic toll.¹⁴

Numerous industries rely upon undocumented immigrant labor. Many businesses risk ICE goons taking away their hardest working and most dedicated employees.

Additionally, businesses in Los Angeles, especially those with large Hispanic/Latino customer bases, have taken a massive economic hit because their customer base is too frightened to leave their own homes.

While some cheer or engage in moralistic lecturing, most normal human beings are enraged by what is transpiring.

This includes many conservatives who often vote Republican because they believe that they are the best party for their financial bottom line. The ICE raids, along with Trump’s destructive tariffs, are hurting their bottom line.¹⁵

Rick Caruso’s opinions denouncing the ICE raids may have surprised many pundits. But really, Caruso is just reflecting how many just like him feel.

On No Kings Day, thousands of people took to the streets of Thousand Oaks, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Dana Point, Simi Valley, and Solvang to protest the ICE raids. Passersby enthusiastically honked horns in support.

Far from woke activist progressive strongholds, these places voted for Trump or are former Republican bastions that remain culturally conservative.

Solvang, founded by Danish immigrants in the 19th century, stands out. A rural community adjacent to farms and ranches, Solvang is not near any major city or even an exurban location for commuters.¹⁶

Also striking are the mass anti-ICE protests in heavily Hispanic/Latino cities of Los Angeles County that have continued unabated, where citizens are actively protecting undocumented immigrants.

Republican politicians and activists have denounced protesters as “anti-law enforcement.” Yet these same Republicans also hailed the victory of ex-Republican Nathan Hochman as Los Angeles County District Attorney and the passage of Proposition 36, which strengthened sentencing for criminal convictions, in November 2024.

These Hispanic/Latino cities are the very same places that defied the Democratic Party to vote overwhelmingly for Hochman and Proposition 36. In other words, some of the strongest pro-law enforcement voters are the strongest opponents of the ICE raids.

From a partisan standpoint, the ICE raids may not have much impact. The two Republicans currently running for Governor, British television pundit Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, stand no chance of winning an election. Both are competing for the title of “Most Delusional Man in California”.

However, the ICE raids may still up-end the 2026 Governor’s race to Caruso’s benefit for two reasons.

First, the ICE raids potentially create large numbers of new conservative leaning voters that the right Democratic candidate can compete for in the primary and during the general election against another Democratic candidate.

Second, the ICE raids change the mindset of voters who have to consider the impending threats to their families and livelihoods.

Prior to the ICE raids, Caruso’s winning campaign issue for Governor would have been on housing issues.

Currently, most plans to solve California’s housing issues in the State Legislature include (1) abolishing single family houses, (2) getting rid of parking spaces, (3) ending fire and earthquake safety requirements for apartment buildings, (4) removing requirements that ADUs have functioning toilets, (5) making it easier to sue cities, and (6) increasing the cost of land zoned for housing.

This is known as the “Yes In My Back Yard” (“YIMBY”) agenda.¹⁷ The enactment of the YIMBY agenda has generated lots of local opposition (deemed “white supremacy” by State Senator Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco)), numerous lawsuits, and angry lectures from Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta.

But it’s created very little new housing and helped even fewer people afford homes.

A successful real estate developer, Caruso has rejected most YIMBY ideology. Yet, he’s not a NIMBY. He recognizes the need for new housing construction and wants to make it easier for developers to build housing. Unlike his YIMBY opponents, Caruso has actually built housing.¹⁸

Caruso could readily appeal to:

• Voters, especially many middle class and working poor, who don’t want the neighborhoods they worked so hard to afford changed from out underneath them.

• Voters, particularly younger ones, who wonder whether they will be able to afford a home of their own.

Caruso could also simultaneously appeal to neighborhood organizations defending themselves from Sacramento’s over-reach and real estate development interests, a rare combination.

But while housing remains a key issue in the Governor’s race, it has now been eclipsed by the existential threats to California from Trump’s ICE raids and tariffs.

This existential threat doesn’t necessarily benefit the political candidate who can win the competition for person who hates Trump the most. All the Democratic candidates for Governor oppose Trump.¹⁹

Voters won’t be asking which candidate hates Trump the most. Instead, voters will be asking which candidate can best protect them from Trump.

Granted, the power of state officials is limited. California cannot directly stop the ICE raids.²⁰ Under the United States Constitution, only the federal government can enforce immigration rules.²¹ California cannot stop the tariffs either. The United States Constitution also gives the power to set trade policy to Congress, not the states (or the President).²²

But California is still the 4th largest economy in the world. States are their own sovereigns with significant powers that the federal government cannot override.²³

A candidate for Governor needs to demonstrate that they will best take advantage of California’s position to most effectively battle Trump and protect Californians.

The same issues that hindered Caruso in 2022 are unlikely to hinder him in 2026. Caruso lost the 2022 Los Angeles Mayoral election for two main reasons.

1. His grand Zohran Mamdani-style message of big changes didn’t resonate with Angelenos who had heard big (and undelivered) promises from their last two mayors and had been disappointed.²⁴

2. A number of conservative and moderate voters who ordinarily would have been Caruso voters voted for Karen Bass because of positive personal connections to her that pre-dated Bass’s time as a politician.²⁵

Some compare Caruso to Trump as they’re both old straight white men who worked in real estate development. This comparison falls flat.

Whatever one’s criticisms of Rick Caruso, he’s nothing like Trump. Unlike Trump, he’s an intelligent individual, an actual real estate developer, and a good businessman. He demonstrated the economic viability of the commercial shopping center and created value for nearby residents and businesses. He’s also donated substantial sums to charities (as opposed to defrauding them).

He’s also an impressive political campaigner, who put together a broad based, albeit unsuccessful, political coalition in his first run for political office. Despite opposition from the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, most major labor unions, and most Democratic and progressive activists, he won over large swaths of Democratic voters in 2022.

As argued in the Battle of Brentwood, Caruso probably would have been elected Mayor had he been facing any other candidate besides Karen Bass.

In a general election matchup with Kamala Harris, Caruso could gain the advantage with voters who want a Governor who can protect against Trump. As a successful billionaire businessman, he fits the role of a Governor who could match wits with someone hell bent on destroying us.

While unfair, a voter couldn’t be blamed for wondering how Kamala Harris could protect them as California’s Governor when she failed to defeat Donald Trump.

One might argue that Harris is better equipped to deal with Trump. She’s a successful attorney who served as Vice President. Certainly, she’ll know what levers of power the state can use to protect itself.

That would be a rational analysis. However, politics is often driven by vibes, gut feelings, and voter emotion, not rational analysis.

If Kamala Harris decides to run for Governor, she likely still starts with an advantage. She has the name recognition, multiple statewide victories, and a wide depth of support across the state.

However, if Rick Caruso decides to run for Governor as well, the ICE raids have created a unique opening for him.

Even the criticism that he’s too much like Trump might benefit him. After all, who better to go up against the devil than someone who knows how the devil thinks?

Tustin, California Resident Narciso Barranco pictured with his three sons who serve in the United States Marine Corps.

1. This may not seem to matter much because California is a largely Democratic state. However, California’s Republicans hold the balance of power in the House of Representatives. Additionally, California remains the chief fundraising arm for the Republican Party.

2. The author of this article is an attorney licensed to practice in the State of California and the District of Columbia. This article and all of the works on this Substack page are statements of the opinions of the author, only, and do not constitute legal advice; they are not intended to be relied upon by any individual or entity in any transaction or other legal matter, past, pending, or future. A paid subscription to this Substack page supports the author’s scholarship and provides access to research that the author has compiled, but does not establish an attorney-client relationship. The author does not accept unsolicited requests for legal advice or representation, and this Substack page is not intended as legal advertising. The opinions expressed on this Substack page reflect the personal views of the author only.

3. For excellent analysis of the 2025 Canadian Federal Election, please read Lessons From Canada's Liberals by

John Halpin

.

4. To add insult to injury, Pierre Poilievre, once heralded by conservative American pundits as Canada’s next Prime Minister and hailed as a conservative icon, lost re-election in his own safe Conservative seat of Carelton.

5. Similarly, conservative opposition leader Peter Dutton lost re-election in his own seat of Dickson where he had served for 24 years.

6. https://twitter.com/i/status/1917046828702568621

7. The neighborhood of Brentwood in Los Angeles is not to be confused with the city of Brentwood, California, located in Contra Costa County, which is located in Northern California, specifically the greater San Francisco Bay Area.

8. As journalist

Peter Kiefer

reported, in Meet Rick Caruso's Ace in the Hole, both Kamala Harris and Rick Caruso have the same political consultant.

9. Cal. Const. Art. II, § 5(b)(“Except as otherwise provided by Section 6, a candidate for a congressional or state elective office may have his or her political party preference, or lack of political party preference, indicated upon the ballot for the office in the manner provided by statute.”).

10. The California Republican Party once had a significant liberal wing that has disappeared. California also had many moderates and conservatives who supported free speech on UC campuses, the separation of church and state, abortion and contraception rights, gay and lesbian rights, and environmental protection. Over the decades, those voters have abandoned the party.

11. With over a million estimated undocumented immigrants in the greater Los Angeles area, it is estimated that something close to 25% of Angelenos live with an undocumented immigrant in their household. Thus, it shouldn’t be surprising that so many citizens oppose the ICE raids and the threats of mass deportation.

12. Mr. Barranco is a constituent of Congresswoman Young Kim (R-Anaheim Hills). Her response to the incident has been to applaud, sponsoring a Congressional resolution to thank ICE for keeping our communities safe.

13. A few weeks ago, a Mexican American woman I know complained to me that her 15 year old son, who, like her, is a U.S. citizen and doesn’t speak Spanish had been stopped by ICE goons no less than three times while going to school or soccer practice. She’s a hardworking mom who works full-time as a server at a country club. But when she’s not working there, she likes picking up extra shifts working at private dinner parties. I’ve never discussed politics with her other than the time I got her to sign a petition to repeal Proposition 19 (2020), which imposed an estate tax in California, on the ballot. She is infuriated that her son is being racially profiled.

14. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-06-25/los-angeles-area-chamber-of-commerce-maria-s-salinas-raids-protests-tariffs

15. Putting aside the humanitarian issues, most sensible conservatives oppose mass deportation because they know how absolutely destructive subtracting 13 million consumers would be to the economy.

16. There’s something poignant about seeing hundreds protesting ICE in Solvang. Denmark, despite being defeated and occupied by Nazi Germany, famously stood up against the Holocaust. When Hitler ordered all Jews to wear the yellow Jewish Star of David, the King of Denmark put on one himself and apparently other Danes did too. The bravery of the Danes saved many Jewish lives.

17. Most inner Bay Area and San Diego Democrats and most Republicans fully embrace the YIMBY agenda. Most Los Angeles Democrats oppose.

18. Politicians often boast of having “built housing” even though they’ve never worked in the real estate development industry and their role was simply to approve of a housing development. Most politicians who use the expression know almost nothing about how developments work. Saying “I BUILT HOUSING!” is akin to saying one has engaged in sexual relations with another because they watched that particular individual in an adult film.

19. Trump had a 70% disapproval rating in California even before the ICE raids began.