Election Day Special! (If you can Make it in Local San Francisco Politics, You can Make it Anywhere)
Final Election Thoughts as my Slogan is Tested by Kamala Harris
Election Day is finally here! I imagine many are too nervous to function.
But hopefully, you are doing your best to maintain your sanity. And remember that there are multiple races on the ballot besides the Presidential race that are important. To maintain my own sanity, I am writing one final election entry.1
My headline probably seems confusing. How does San Francisco politics prepare one to be successful for higher office?
I’ve uttered the above expression to numerous people who have looked at me in response with a quizzical eye. This includes elected lawmakers. But I don’t say it with irony or sarcasm (well, not too much anyway).
San Francisco is just 49 square miles filled with highly politically active voters. While most vote Democratic at the Presidential and state level, at the local level, there is an incredible amount of division on various issues. A candidate must often walk a tight rope of competing interests to win. Politicians who can survive the absolute battlefield that is San Francisco tend to make for great candidates for higher office.
Will Kamala Harris, first elected in 2003 to be San Francisco District Attorney, prove this slogan today on the biggest stage possible?
It’s not clear.
Most political pundits expect that Donald Trump will win.
But not everyone believes that. In We're Going to be Okay.,
predicts that Kamala Harris will win. I agree with the tenor of his article though I’m not making the same prediction.Instead, I will analogize to this year’s Major League Baseball season. The 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers were continually written off by sportscasters (the pundits of the sports world). They confidently predicted that the Dodgers would fade as they usually did and fall apart as soon as they had in the last three post-seasons and in the post-seasons before the pandemic.
After Game 3 of the first round National League Division Series against the San Diego Padres, the Dodgers were completely written off. They faced an elimination game on the road and didn’t even have a starter for Game 4 (instead having to rely on their bullpen).
I still didn’t write off the Dodgers though. In my gut, I knew they could still win, however long the odds seemed.
Indeed, the Dodgers came back to win that series, won the National League Pennant, and then won the World Series 4-1 against the heavily favored New York Yankees.
The World Series matchup is analogous to both Presidential candidates. Kamala, who is now a resident of Brentwood, is a Dodger. Trump, who lives on 5th Avenue, is clearly a Yankee.
Like the 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers, Kamala Harris has been time and time again underestimated in her political career. Pundits and other elites often underrate her appear and fail to understand her natural talents. I still remember the 2010 Attorney General’s race where a leading Democratic political consultant in the state confidently predicted her defeat.
Of course, I never predicted the Dodgers would win the 2024 World Series. I simply said that despite what experts confidently predicted, they had the ability to win and I had a gut feeling they would win.
The truth is, to some degree, every political prognosticator is just sort of spit balling. I’m not going to make a prediction but simply give my best possible analysis of what to look for and why I think the possibility exists for Kamala to win.
I’ll start with each swing state in the electoral college.
Arizona - Shy Republicans for Kamala
In all final polling of the 2022 Arizona Governor’s race between local newscaster turned mentally unhinged Trump-fan girl Kari Lake and Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, Lake led. Hobbs had not run a great campaign.
Yet, few polls showed Lake above 50%. There was some question as to whether a large chunk of Republicans, the John McCain Republicans, would defect to vote for Hobbs. If they did, Hobbs had the ability to make up the gap.
Major Republican figures refused to endorse Lake and some seemed to tacitly support Hobbs. One more partisan former Republican Governor, Jan Brewer, even had lunch with Hobbs before the election. “It’s just lunch!” she defiantly told reporters.
But it sent a message to any Republican who was watching, “it’s okay, you can vote for Hobbs.”
On Election Day, the question remained as to whether that would be enough to help the Democrats. Would enough sensible Republicans break from their party and vote for Hobbs even they wouldn’t be loud about it?
They did. Hobbs narrowly won.
Polling currently shows Trump narrowly ahead in Arizona. However, she has received a great deal of affirmative support from Republican elected officials. And it’s clear that there are shy Republicans who will vote for Kamala. Just like those who voted for Katie Hobbs in 2022. Are there enough to give Kamala a victory?
Florida - Abortion and Marijuana Referendums
Florida is not really considered a swing state this year and it is likely that Trump will win the state. However, there is a reason why the state might see an upset. Two ballot measures - one to guarantee abortion rights in the state constitution and one to legalize marijuana - are on the ballot. Both will undoubtedly turn out unlikely voters who lean left.
Will they vote for Kamala and hand her a narrow victory?
Georgia - Abortion is on the Ballot
The Georgia Supreme Court has recently upheld Georgia’s abortion ban under the state constitution. While a majority of Georgians support abortion rights, there is no way to make that a political reality in the state.
Republicans control the State Legislature and have permanently gerrymandered themselves a majority. Georgians can vote for a Democratic Legislature but Republicans are guaranteed a majority of the seats. There is no ballot initiative system in Georgia to over-ride the Legislature either.
What is the solution for pro-choice Georgians to vote for abortion rights? Voting for Kamala Harris who can try to legalize abortion at the federal level. Thus far, women have outnumbered men by far in early voting in Georgia, which has smashed all previous records.
Will pro-choice voters deliver a victory to Kamala?
Iowa - Possible Surprise
Iowa has not been considered a swing state for this election. Trump won the state handily in 2016 and 2020. The Republicans have been ascendent in the state. However, Barack Obama handily won Iowa in 2008 and 2012.
An Ann Selzer poll over the weekend showed Kamala Harris unexpectedly in the lead, albeit within the margin of error. This is significant because Selzer is considered the most accurate pollster in Iowa. They have often not just predicted the winner but nailed the margin.
One poll doesn’t mean that Kamala will win the state. It could be an outlier. However, is it possible that between racist comments against Latinos and Puerto Rico, public fantasies about killing Liz Cheney, among other things, that Iowans have finally grown exhausted of Trump?
Moreover, even if Kamala loses Iowa as expected, if the state is close, does that mean that there has been a big shift in the race towards her that cements national victory?
Maine’s Second Congressional District - As Goes Iowa?
Maine is one of two states that does not award its electoral votes by winner of the state and instead awards its electoral votes by winner of individual Congressional Districts (a really bad idea btw for reasons I can get into another time).
In 2016, Trump, riding a wave of working class white support, won Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which is more blue collar even as he lost the state overall to Hillary Clinton. This pattern repeated in 2020 even though Democrat Jared Golden picked up the seat in the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm.
It seems likely that Trump will carry the 2nd Congressional District once more even as he loses the state. However, if there is a late-breaking swing of northern whites to Kamala, as may be occurring in Iowa, is it possible that Kamala wins this district in addition to the whole state?
Michigan - Foreign Policy and the Ethnic Vote
The Israel Hamas conflict has created divisions within the Democratic Party. Democrats have had to walk a political tight rope because key constituencies within the Democratic Party are at odds over the situation and feel passionately about it.
Michigan has the largest Arab American population in the United States. Most have focused on whether that voting group might deliver the state to Trump.
However, there may be one old ethnic vote that counters the other way. Michigan is also home to one of the largest ethnic Polish-American populations in the United States, something that has long influenced politics in the state. Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine is a long-term threat to Poland, which fears Russia invading to reclaim territory it held during the tsarist empire.
Trump’s unequivocal support of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine (and his worship of Vladimir Putin) is a turnoff to many voters. But it is a particular turnoff to Polish American voters who would like to see Poland remain an independent country with a democracy in the post-Cold War Era.
Unlike Ukraine, Poland is a member of NATO. But with Trump threatening to withhold funding from NATO, pull the United States from NATO, or simply not honor our NATO alliance, Poland is in a particularly precarious place. The NATO alliance only deters a Russian invasion if it believes that doing so will prompt a United States declaration of war.
Will Polish American voters make the difference and elect Kamala in Michigan?
Nebraska’s Second Congressional District - Unique Opportunity
Nebraska is a deep red state. However, like most red states, it has blue pockets. And like Maine, it has a unique system where the state awards its electoral votes by Congressional district (once again, a very bad idea). In 2020, Joe Biden won Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, giving him a key electoral vote.
It was the first indication on election night that Biden might be successful. This year, polling has shown Kamala consistently leading in the largely suburban district (with the caveat that polling Congressional districts is notoriously unreliable).
Is it possible that voters in this district give Kamala a 270th electoral vote needed to win?
Nevada - Early Vote Indications
In previous years, Democrats dominated the early vote in Nevada. This allowed some poll-defying victories in the state. This year, Republicans have easily won the early vote in the state and Democrats likely start Election Day with a massive deficit. The famed journalist, Jon Ralston, has reported on Republican dominance of the early vote turnout this year in 2024.
However, Ralston yesterday predicted that Kamala would very narrowly win the state. He’s a reliable arbiter of political predictions in the state.
Will the early vote lead for Trump prove to be insurmountable for Kamala? Or will Ralston’s prediction prove accurate again?
North Carolina - Top of the Ticket Problems for the Republicans
Throughout this election, polling has shown a competitive race in North Carolina with Kamala Harris doing better there in polling than she has in other traditional swing states. That said, North Carolina has often looked good for Democrats in the past only to see voters defy the polls and narrowly vote for the Republican.
This year might be slightly different. A similar situation to Georgia exists as to the issue of abortion. But also, the Governor’s race may change the dynamic.
The Republicans gubernatorial nominee in North Carolina, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, has been a complete disaster. After recent scandals revealing his support for Nazis, support for actual white supremacists, and a fetish for being a Peeping Tom, he trails his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Josh Stein, by a wide margin.
North Carolina has been a hotly contested state in all three of the last Presidential elections. And there has been polling showing Kamala Harris doing better than expected there throughout the campaign. But in each of the last three Presidential elections, the Republicans narrowly won the state.
In both 2016 and 2020, North Carolina also featured competitive U.S. Senate and Governor’s races on the ballot. If there were Republican voters who were unenthusiastic about Trump who considered not voting, they were likely moved to vote because of the other Republicans on the ballot.
Given how lousy Mark Robinson is, it seems unlikely that he’s going to drive reticent Republicans to the polls. Additionally, his presence might serve to turn out additional voters who will vote just to keep him out. These voters will likely vote for Harris.
Will Robinson’s baggage be enough to propel Kamala to a victory?
Pennsylvania - Tony Hinchecliff Fallout
At Trump’s big Madison Square Garden rally, the message was clear, “Don’t be Stupid, be a Smarty! Come and join the Nazi Party!”2 In line with that theme, the Trump campaign decided to open with 4th rate comedian Tony Hinchecliff, who made several racist remarks about Latinos.
Among other racist comments, he said that (1) all Latinos do is procreate, and (2) that Puerto Rico is a floating island of garbage.
The campaign has received substantial backlash for this, including among many Puerto Rican voters. Trump subsequently driving around in a large garbage truck, while praised as politically genius by scores of right wingers on Twitter, seems to have only made things worse, making it seem to many that he’s in full agreement with what Hinchecliff said.
For those who dislike cancel culture, it bears mentioning. This wasn’t just some random bro but a representative of Trump, who spoke on his behalf. Moreover, the campaign knew ahead of time about his racist remarks because he read his shtick off the teleprompter and apparently had planned to call Kamala a “cunt” but had the campaign veto it.
Although Puerto Rico is denied the right to vote in U.S. elections, which is backwards since Puerto Rico is a part of the United States, Puerto Ricans who live on the mainland can vote in elections. Many do. Pennsylvania has the third largest Puerto Rican population in the United States. In a close state, this may prove to be a critical difference.
Will the Puerto Rican vote be enough to carry the state for her?
Wisconsin - Republican Elected Official Defections
A number of Republican elected officials have defected to endorse Kamala Harris.3 In a closely contested state like Wisconsin, Kamala will need the votes of defecting Republicans. Critically though, it’s not enough for them to simply not vote for Trump. They need to affirmatively vote for her.
That’s really the difference between 2016 and 2020.
That’s a difficult task for Kamala to accomplish. Many Republicans have to give up their longtime political preferences and beliefs to cast a ballot for someone who disagrees with them on many important issues. And many wonder whether they might be voting for someone who could be even worse than Trump.
When Republican elected officials though - the people who a conservative Republican voter will trust - publicly support Kamala, it sends an important message to those Never Trump voters. It tells them that whatever their disagreements with Kamala, they can trust her to be President.
Will enough of these Never Trump Republicans be persuaded to help Kamala hold the state?
National Factors Generally
Pundits have expressed why they believe Kamala Harris will certainly lose. I don’t need to rehash them. They could well be right.
But here are some of the reasons why I think it’s entirely possible for Kamala to win.
Trump does not have the advantage of incumbency like he did in 2020. A substantial number of voters will simply vote for the incumbent President just because they’re the incumbent.
Trump does not have the advantage of quiet revulsion among moderates and independents over the “Summer of Nonsense” in 2020 that lost Joe Biden votes.
Trump also does not have the advantages he had against Hillary of the James Comey intervention. Compared to Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris doesn’t have that same level of baked in national public opinion.
Unlike 2020, where Democratic activists stayed under lock down and there was no paid field canvassing, Democrats are actively canvassing voters in 2024. Having the Republicans as the only field campaign enormously helped Trump in 2020. It will be evenly matched this time.
Though there’s no shortage of conservative gaslighting on the topic, Roe v. Wade being taken away is no longer a theoretical doomsday scenario promulgated by Democrats to scare voters. It actually happened. Trump takes credit.
There are people who are still legitimately upset that Trump sent a violent mob into the Capitol to overturn election results on January 6, 2021. (As they should be btw). Whatever things said about Trump that may have seemed overwrought during his Presidency and the campaigns, they all turned out to be true.
Many pundits are operating in the world of the Bradley Effect. That refers to the 1982 California Governor’s race where Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, LA’s first black Mayor, led Attorney General George Deukmejian in pre-election polling and even in exit polling but lost the election anyway.
Pundits assume that Kamala needs to be leading by a massive margin in order to win because they assume that a significant number of voters are lying to the pollsters about voting for Kamala because they worry about being politically correct.
However, it’s not 1982 anymore. It’s not even 1989 (where something similar happened to Virginia Governor Doug Wilder, a black man, who was projected to win by 10% but won by less than 1%). Many Americans have grown up.Having so many leading figures in the Republican Party come out and affirmatively vote for Kamala is a good housekeeping seal of approval for any reticent Republican who worries about what having Kamala as President will be like.
Dick Cheney is not endorsing Kamala Harris because he wishes to stay popular with Democrats. Nor is Alberto Gonzales. Nor is Barbara Bush. Nor are any of the hundreds of Republicans who served in elected office and in high level Republican Presidential Administration jobs.
Republican voters might be quiet about it but it certainly plays a role.There’s a mismatch between turnout and the polls. In most states, Republicans have been winmning the turnout battle in the early vote with more Republicans voting early than Democrats. Yet, polling both nationally and in the swing states shows that Kamala leads (in many cases by a lot).
The polls could be off. But this leads me to wonder if what is left to turnout today is going to be that helpful for Trump.The gender gap. In a a final New York Post poll, Kamala and Trump were tied. Yet in the crosstabs, Kamala led among women, while Trump led among men by by a smaller amount. The poll seemed to be assuming that the turnout of men would outnumber women. That hasn’t been the case thus far in the voting and it usually is not the case.
Final Thoughts
I can’t predict the outcome of this election. I can only say that I think Kamala has the ability to win and very well might. And because it’s so close, it’s a scary day and a very scary time.
Whether the U.S. will remain a free and democratic society is at jeopardy if Trump returns to the White House.
In Kamala Harris, we are getting a politician who won in San Francisco. If one can make it there in politics, one can make it anywhere.
Watch this space.
The author of this article is an attorney licensed to practice in the State of California and the District of Columbia. This article and all of the works on this Substack page are statements of the opinions of the author, only, and do not constitute legal advice; they are not intended to be relied upon by any individual or entity in any transaction or other legal matter, past, pending, or future. A paid subscription to this Substack page supports the author’s scholarship and provides access to research that the author has compiled, but does not establish an attorney-client relationship. The author does not accept unsolicited requests for legal advice or representation, and this Substack page is not intended as legal advertising. The opinions expressed on this Substack page reflect the personal views of the author only.
https://www.wispolitics.com/2024/harris-campaign-icymi-conservative-lawmakers-in-wisconsin-put-country-over-party-and-endorse-vice-president-kamala-harris/