Understanding the "Red Shift" in Los Angeles County
A political analysis of the Hispanic/Latino vote
One of the most striking results in the 2024 Presidential election is that unlike the previous two Presidential elections, Donald Trump narrowly won a plurality of the nationwide popular vote.1
Four pertinent facts about the national popular vote stand out:
Donald Trump received 3,984,285 fewer votes in 2024 than Joe Biden received in 2020.
Donald Trump received 3,076,238 more votes in 2024 than he did in 2020.
Kamala Harris received 789,908 more votes in 2024 than Donald Trump received in 2020.
There appears to have been significant swings against Kamala Harris in deep blue states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California, to account for this result.
Here is the key takeaway. Despite the insurrection, multiple felony convictions, and civil rape adjudication, there are still some people who decided in 2024 that bringing Trump back was a good idea.2
More importantly, there are several million voters who voted for Biden in 2020, did not change their minds about Trump in 2024, but simply declined to vote for Kamala in 2024. It is similar to the Presidential election in 2016 where numerous voters who refused to vote for Trump also declined to vote for Hillary Clinton.
Much of Trump’s popular vote victory is credited to swings against her from Hispanics/Latinos, Asian Americans, and black men. These swings are also credited for her very narrow losses in the battleground states.
It’s for this reason that an in depth look at California’s Presidential election results are worthwhile for understanding the election result.
Despite California’s reputation as a bastion of anti-Trump resistance, there was a swing to Trump in 2024. Kamala Harris won the state by a far smaller margin than Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Ten counties that voted for Biden in 2020 voted for Trump in 2024.3 Moreover, Republicans gained two Democratically held State Assembly seats and one Democratically held State Senate seat.
Buoyed by these results, Republicans are celebrating their great victory.
Not to throw too much cold water on the celebrations of California Republicans, but some perspective should be added here.
Kamala Harris won California by a larger margin and with a greater percentage of the vote than Richard Nixon did in 1972 and Ronald Reagan did in 1980 and 1984. Donald Trump won a smaller percentage of the vote in California than George McGovern did in 1972 and Walter Mondale did in 1984.
In other words, Kamala’s victory in the state was still significant.
Moreover, Democrats gained three Congressional seats, defeating 3 incumbent Republican members of Congress. And in deeper context, the state legislative gains of Republicans are less than impressive.4 Republicans celebrating the victory of Nathan Hochman over George Gascon in the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s race cheered as one Kamala Harris voter and endorser swore in another.5
Nevertheless, there was still a significant swing with Kamala winning California by 20.2% versus Biden who won by 29% and Hillary Clinton who won by 30%. There was also a swing against her among Hispanic/Latino voters.
Does this mean though that Trump won over many previous Biden and Clinton voters?
Not necessarily.
In terms of total votes cast in California, Trump received 75,179 more votes in 2024 than he received in 2020 (a 1.25% increase) Kamala received 1,834,460 fewer votes than Joe Biden received in 2020 (a 16.51% decrease).
It is always dangerous to extrapolate information from non-voters. Here though, we can definitively say that there are Biden voters who did not vote for Trump but declined to vote for Kamala. The numbers also suggest that while Trump largely held onto the voters he won in 2020, he likely did not gain significant numbers of voters who did not vote for him in 2020.
Los Angeles County presents a prime example. Kamala Harris won the county by a convincing 64.83%-31.91% margin. However, this was far smaller than Biden’s 71%-26.9% winning margin in 2020 and Hillary Clinton’s 71.8%-22.4% margin in 2016.
But a look at the actual voting numbers presents a slightly different picture. In Los Angeles County, Trump’s actual vote gain from 2020 was merely 44,332 votes. Meanwhile, Kamala received 611,776 fewer votes than Biden received in 2020.
A deeper dive into the numbers is required. They tell a story that the news media may not understand. This is especially true when analyzing the Hispanic/Latino vote.
According to the Los Angeles Almanac and Zip Atlas, there are eighteen (18) cities and thirteen (13) unincorporated areas in Los Angeles County with Hispanic/Latino populations of 75% or higher.6 Looking at the elections results in these communities in particular can demonstrate the Hispanic/Latino vote.
I have listed the Presidential election results from both 20247 and 20208 for each of these communities below. In addition to the percentages, I have listed the actual number of votes received by each candidate, the total number of ballots cast each year in the Presidential race, and the actual differences in votes gained or lost from 2020 for both Kamala and Trump.
Unincorporated Walnut Park (98.17% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 68.26% (2,874 votes)
Donald Trump: 27.98% (1,178 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 4,210 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 81.01% (4,113 votes)
Donald Trump: 16.68% (847 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 5,077 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -1239 votes; Trump: +331 votesMaywood (97.59% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 67.86% (3,750 votes)
Donald Trump: 29.06% (1,606 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 5,526 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 80.48% (5,468 votes)
Donald Trump: 17.29% (1,175 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 6,833 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -1718 votes; Trump: +431 votesHuntington Park (97.04% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 67.66% (7,762 votes)
Donald Trump: 28.59% (3,280 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 11,472 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 80.56% (11,596 votes)
Donald Trump: 17.38% (2,503 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 14,394 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -3834 votes; Trump: +777 votesCudahy (96.99% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 66.09% (2,934 votes)
Donald Trump: 29.96% (1,330 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 4,439 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 80% (4351 votes)
Donald Trump: 16.95% (922 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 5,438 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -1417, Trump +408 votesBell Gardens (96.10% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 65.08% (5,371 votes)
Donald Trump: 30.76% (2,539 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 8,252 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 79.67% (8,202 votes)
Donald Trump: 18.02% (1,856 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 10,294 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -2831 votes; Trump: +683 votesSouth Gate (95.25% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 65.92% (16,417 votes)
Donald Trump: 30.52% (7,602 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 24,903 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 78.57% (24,089 votes)
Donald Trump: 19.07% (5,849 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 30,657 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -7672 votes; Trump: +1753 votesUnincorporated East Los Angeles (95.16% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 69.9% (12,963 votes)
Donald Trump: 26.35% (4,887 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 18,544 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 82.7% (17,957 votes)
Donald Trump: 14.78% (3,210 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 21,711 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -4994 votes; Trump: +1677 votesCommerce (95.05% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 65.89% (2,813 votes)
Donald Trump: 30.59% (1,306 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 4,269 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 78.34% (3,984 votes)
Donald Trump: 19.37% (985 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 5,085 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -1171 votes; Trump: +321 votesUnincorporated Florence-Graham (93.61%)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 70.33% (7,761 votes)
Donald Trump: 26.49% (2,923 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 11,034 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 84.15% (12,235 votes)
Donald Trump: 13.64% (1,984 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 14,538 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -4474 votes; Trump: +939 votesSan Fernando (92.37% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result:
Kamala Harris: 65.31% (4,687 votes)
Donald Trump: 31.35% (2,250 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 7,176 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 76.59% (6,689 votes)
Donald Trump: (1,838 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 8,733 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -2002 votes; Trump: +412 votesIrwindale (91.51% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 59.59% (438 votes)
Donald Trump: 35.64% (262 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 735 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 69.6% (561 votes)
Donald Trump: 29.28% (236 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 806 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -123 votes; Trump: +26 votesVernon (91.49% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 64.10% (50 votes)
Donald Trump: 33.33% (26 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 78 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 68.04% (66 votes)
Donald Trump: 31.95% (31 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 97 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -16 votes; Trump: -5 votesPico Rivera (90.45% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 64.94% (15,028 votes)
Donald Trump: 32.16% (7,444 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 23,140 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 74.8% (20,373 votes)
Donald Trump: 23.24% (6,329 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 27,233 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -5345 votes; Trump: +1115 votesBell (89.14% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 63.85% (4,885 votes)
Donald Trump: 31.96% (2,445 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 7,650 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 78.94% (7,382 votes)
Donald Trump: 18.43% (1,724 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 9,351 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -2497 votes; Trump: +721 votesUnincorporated West Whittier/Los Nietos (88.29% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 63.02% (6,302 votes)
Donald Trump: 33.71% (3371 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 10,000 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 72.68% (8943 votes)
Donald Trump: 25.08% (3086 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 12,304 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -2641 votes; Trump: +285 votesUnincorporated Lennox (87.59% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 70.45% (3101 votes)
Donald Trump: 25.95% (1143 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 4,403 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 82.61% (4653 votes)
Donald Trump: 14.91% (840 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 5,632 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -1552 votes; Trump: +303 votesLynwood (87.58% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 68.86% (10,823 votes)
Donald Trump: 27.62% (4,342 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 15,716 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 81.33% (15,894 votes)
Donald Trump: 15.06% (2,944 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 19,492 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -5071 votes; Trump: +1398 votesUnincorporated South San Jose Hills (86.1% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 61.55% (9,155 votes)
Donald Trump: 35.46% (5,274 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 14,872 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 72.91% (12,919 votes)
Donald Trump: 24.91% (4,414 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 17,717 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -3764 votes; Trump: +860 votesUnincorporated East Pasadena (83.59% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 64.96% (2,505 votes)
Donald Trump: 31.50% (1,215 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 3,856 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 68.37% (2,895 votes)
Donald Trump: 29.23% (1,238 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 4,234 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -390 votes; Trump: -23 votesUnincorporated East Compton (83.6% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 70.04% (1,985 votes)
Donald Trump: 26.78% (759 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 2,834 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 83.73% (3,043 votes)
Donald Trump: 13.78% (501 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 3,634 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -1058 votes; Trump: +258 votesUnincorporated Avocado Heights (81.54% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 61.1% (3,200 votes)
Donald Trump: 35.76% (1,873 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 5,237 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 71.38% (4,772 votes)
Donald Trump: 26.25% (1,775 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 6,665 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -1572 votes; Trump: +98 votesParamount (81.30% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 66.56% (8,953 votes)
Donald Trump: 30.13% (4,053 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 13,451 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 78.32% (12,974 votes)
Donald Trump: 19.13% (3,170 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 16,565 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -4021 votes; Trump: +883 votesLa Puente (81.08% Hispanic Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 62.66% (6,813 votes)
Donald Trump: 34.38% (3,738 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 10,872 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 73.22% (9,723 votes)
Donald Trump: 24.28% (3,224 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 13,278 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -2910 votes; Trump: +514 votesUnincorporated West Puente Valley (80.7% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 65.35% (2,800 votes)
Donald Trump: 31.58% (1,353 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 4,284 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 75% (4,028 votes)
Donald Trump: 23.07% (1,239 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 5,370 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -1228 votes; Trump: +114 votesUnincorporated Citrus (80.50% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 51.21% (294 votes)
Donald Trump: 46.51% (267 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 574 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 49.68% (159 votes)
Donald Trump: 47.81% (153 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 320 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: +135 votes; Trump: +114 votesUnincorporated South Whittier (78.90% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 55.43% (13,801 votes)
Donald Trump: 41.47% (10,326 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 24,896 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 63.25% (17418 votes)
Donald Trump: 34.35% (9460 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 27,534 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -3617 votes; Trump: +866 votesSouth El Monte (79.8% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 61.20% (3,045 votes)
Donald Trump: 35.67% (1,775 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 4,975 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 73.51% (4,520 votes)
Donald Trump: 23.81% (1,464 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 6,148 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -1475 votes; Trump: +311 votesUnincorporated Willowbrook (79% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 76.86% (5,621 votes)
Donald Trump: 20.49% (1,499 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 7,313 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 87.24% (7,978 votes)
Donald Trump: 10.45% (956 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 9,144 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -2357 votes; Trump: +543 votesMontebello (78.1% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 64.7% (13,569 votes)
Donald Trump: 32.17% (6,748 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 20,972 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 73.96% (18,283 votes)
Donald Trump: 23.92% (5,914 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 24,719 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -4714 votes; Trump: +834 votesHawaiian Gardens (77.1% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 61.73% (2,231 votes)
Donald Trump: 35.19% (1,272 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 3,614 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 72.10% (2,996 votes)
Donald Trump: 25.29% (1,051 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 4,155 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -765 votes; Trump: +221 votesDowney (75% Hispanic/Latino)
2024 Presidential Election Result
Kamala Harris: 56.38% (23,701 votes)
Donald Trump: 40% (16,859 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 42,031 votes
2020 Presidential Election Result
Joe Biden: 66.5% (32,211 votes)
Donald Trump: 31.38% (15,203 votes)
Total Presidential Votes Cast: 48,437 votes
Actual Vote Differences From 2020 to 2024: Kamala: -8510; Trump: +1656 votes
So what conclusions to draw?
Certainly, Trump didn’t win the Hispanic/Latino vote as claimed. He lost every single predominantly Hispanic/Latino city and unincorporated area in Los Angeles County, nearly all of them by double digit margins.
However, there has also been a shift towards Trump in all but one jurisdiction. Here’s a key distinction though.
Did Trump win over previous Biden voters or bring out new voters?
Certainly, a few. He technically received more votes in all but one jurisdiction. But those numbers are relatively small. He received mostly what he received in 2020, indicating that he had as much persuasion on the voters in 2024 as he did in 2020.
What accounts for the shift is that Kamala won far fewer of Biden’s 2020 voters, winning fewer votes than Biden in all but one jurisdiction. More tellingly though, the drop in Kamala’s numbers from Biden’s numbers in 2020 far exceeds the gains for Trump in every single jurisdiction.
It suggests something slightly less than a swing. It suggests that a significant number of Biden voters simply declined to vote for Kamala even though they did not want Trump.
Why didn’t they vote for Kamala? Right now, we can only speculate.
As
suggests in Economic Populism: Opiate of the Democrats, many Democrats simply want to turn up the volume on economic populism as a cure-all solution (which he strongly recommends against). They believe that there are Biden voters who simply refused to vote for Kamala because she was too right wing and didn’t address their demands for socialism and left wing populism.That’s a possibility. Though it seems unlikely. As
points out in How Democrats Misread the Environment, Joe Biden “immediately pursued one of the most ambitious legislative agendas in recent history.”It’s also a possibility that many of these voters were alienated by left wing policies and rhetoric. Or perhaps that knowing that California was not in play, many voters simply declined to vote.
Either way, understanding the reasons for why these voters declined to vote is key for the Democratic Party in understanding its 2024 loss and charting the course in future elections.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
The author of this article is an attorney licensed to practice in the State of California and the District of Columbia. This article and all of the works on this Substack page are statements of the opinions of the author, only, and do not constitute legal advice; they are not intended to be relied upon by any individual or entity in any transaction or other legal matter, past, pending, or future. A paid subscription to this Substack page supports the author’s scholarship and provides access to research that the author has compiled, but does not establish an attorney-client relationship. The author does not accept unsolicited requests for legal advice or representation, and this Substack page is not intended as legal advertising. The opinions expressed on this Substack page reflect the personal views of the author only.
These counties were Butte County, Fresno County, Imperial County, Inyo County, Lake County, Merced County, Riverside County, San Bernardino County, San Joaquin County, and Stanislaus County. Most of these counties have long been Republican strongholds that had trended blue in recent years or in the case of Butte County and Inyo County, unexpectedly voted for Biden in 2020. Imperial County and Lake County both voted for a Republican Presidential candidate for the first time since 1988.
In AD-36, Republican Jeff Gonzalez defeated Democrat Joey Acuna Jr. for an open seat that was held by Democrats. The Democratic candidate, however, has run for this same Assembly seat three previous times, with each race ending in defeat. He has the distinction of having lost to four different Republicans for the same elected office.
In AD-58, Republican Leticia Castillo defeated Democrat Clarisa Cervantes, younger sister of State Senator Sabrina Cervantes, who previously held the same Assembly seat. Clarisa Cervantes had multiple DUI convictions, including one obtained while currently serving in local elected office. After her latest conviction, she declared that she would be best to deal with the issues of alcoholism and addiction.
State Senator Josh Newman (D-Fullerton) lost re-election to former Assemblyman Steven Choi (R-Irvine). Though this was aided by well over a million dollars spent by a hard left wing government employee labor union angered over Senator Newman voting with them only 96% of the time rather than 100% of the time. When Senator Newman would not vote for a priority item, they decided to punish him by attempting to defeat him for re-election. Having succeeded, they have elected a conservative, pro-business, anti-labor Republican legislator in his place. #Strategery
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